They just mean that one side tends to put more effort into the win. Preseason wins don’t mean a team is great, and they don’t mean a team will get better. Young talent in the preseason may mean a bright future, but if so, it’s a more distant one.ĭo Preseason Wins Correlate With Next Year’s Preseason Wins?įunny enough… YES! It’s a weak correlation but it’s still significant, and gives some insight into what preseason wins indicate. Again, however, the answer is that there is no correlation. We investigated this question because we were curious if the promising young talent that evidences itself in helping win preseason games also bodes well for a team’s success a little farther in the future. Just don’t put any stock into the wins and losses when you’re assessing your season win totals bets or Week 1 picks.ĭo Preseason Wins Correlate With Next Year’s Regular Season Wins? This doesn’t mean you can’t get excited about a rookie playing well, because that still can mean something. They started 0-4? Don’t worry, it’s wiped clean. Your team went 4-0? Too bad, it won’t help. Our data shows no significant correlation between wins in the preseason and the regular season. So what’s the real answer? We looked at data from the past seven seasons and answered three burning questions about what preseason success means.ĭo Preseason Wins Correlate With This Year’s Regular Season Wins? Ouch.Įven though preseason pundits love to recall the 2008 Lions, one case like that doesn’t categorically discredit any relevance of the NFL preseason. More famously in recent times, the 2008 Lions finished the preseason 4-0, then lost all 16 games they played in the regular season. Tom Brady wasn’t in the building during the Patriots football game this week unless Brady goes down injured this year, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from how the Pats’ pass-heavy offense will fare based on that game. Then again, there are also numerous examples of times when the preseason clearly serves as a poor proxy for future potential. In addition, other facets of game play, such as coaching strategy or special teams, more closely emulate the regular season during these warm-up games, which could lend more meaning to preseason results. A team with a good preseason record often had strong play from youngsters and backups, and those players will become more valuable as injuries mount and experience builds during the regular season. On the other hand, a team’s key players may only be on the field for a half, a series, or (if you’re the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson) not at all.ĭespite the lack of playing time for starters, though, one can build a logical case that a team’s preseason results still matter. On the one hand, the league does keep score and the players on the field are usually going all out. The four preseason games each NFL team contests every season are always a bizarre dance of competitiveness. Quick Study: Do NFL Preseason Wins Mean Anything?

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